金融學外文翻譯------匯率和貿易平衡的關系東盟國家的經驗-國際貿易(編輯修改稿)

　

【文章內容簡介】 The plots of trade balances of ASEAN5 economies with respect to their major trading partner Japan are shown in Figure 2. The Malaysian trade balance generally deteriorates from 1986 to 1995, and from then it improves until 1999, the end period of this study. Similar stylised trend is clearly observed in the case of the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, with the exception of Indonesian trade balance, in which the trend is less obvious. III. EXCHANGE RATETRADE BALANCE RELATIONSHIP The elasticity model of the balance of trade (Krueger, 1983) has shown the existence of a theoretical relationship between exchange rate and the trade balance. Generally, the nominal depreciation (appreciation) of exchange rate is assumed to change the real exchange rate (see for instance, Himarios, 1989。 and BahmaniOskooee, 2020) and thus has a direct effect on trade balance. BahmaniOskooee (2020) noted that in an effort to gain international petitiveness and help to improve its trade balance, a country may adhere to devaluation or allow her currency to depreciate. Devaluation or depreciation increase exports by making exports relatively cheaper, and discourage imports by making imports relatively more expensive, thus improving trade balance. With the above optimistic view, one would expect that the depreciation of ASEAN5 exchange rates with respect to Japanese yen would improve these economies’ trade balances with respect to Japan, during the sample period of study. However, from our plots of the exchange rates (Figure 1) and trade balances (Figure 2), the impact of the depreciation of ASEAN5 exchange rates (Figure 1, downwards–sloping longterm trend) on the bilateral trade balances is surprisingly the other way round. For instance, we observed that, rather than improvement, Malaysian trade balance actually deteriorates up from 1986 to 1995, despite the fact that the ringgit had depreciated during this period. Similar phenomenon is observed in other countries (except Indonesia, in which the trend is less clear). For period post 1995, there exists a shortrun improvement of trade balance in all cases (except Indonesia). In particular, the trade balances recorded 5 surpluses only in the last 3 years or so of our sample period prising of 14 years in total. It seems that the role of exchange rate changes in initiating changes in the trade balances has been exaggerated. These results e as no surprise because various studies have found weak statistical evidence connecting exchange rate changes and the trade balance (see for example, Greenwood, 1984。 Rose and Yellen, 1989。 Mahdavi and Sohrabian, 1993。 Buluswar et al., 1996。 Rahman and Mustafa, 1996。 Rahman et al., 1997). In this case, devaluationbased adjustment policies may not achieve the desired effects of nominal exchange rate changes (devaluation) on the balance of trade. The inconsistency between the optimistic theoretical view and empirical data simply means that there is a need to turn to other view, which could offer satisfactory explanation of the data. One possible way is turning back to the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. In particular, the movement of relative prices, which has impact on relative real money, must be taken into account. This is because trade balance depends on the demands for domestic goods relative to foreign goods, and these demands depend on relative prices, the parison of foreign to domestic prices. VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS This study addresses the question of whether exchange rate changes have any significant and direct impact on trade balance. While the elasticity model of the balance of trade (Krueger, 1983) has shown the existence of a theoretical relationship between exchange rate and the trade balance, the empirical results on this relationship have been ambiguous. By examining the trade balances between ASEAN5 countries and Japan for the sample period from 1986 to 1999, this study found that the