發展經濟學developmenteconomics(編輯修改稿)

　

【文章內容簡介】 ted in an attempt to understand why certain policieswere effective in a given country while others were not, and whythe same type of policy was effective in one country but not in another.For example: In earlier concepts of the aggregate production function, the residualwas thought of as a coefficient of technical advance. The second generation,however, looked at the growth process in a more microeconomicfashion. The residual was recognized to be a posite of the effectsof many different forces: (i) improvements in the quality of labor througheducation, experience and onthejob training。 (ii) reallocation of resourcesfrom lowproductivity to higherproductivity uses, either throughnormal market forces, or through the reduction of barriers or distortions。(iii) exploitation of economies of scale。 (iv) improved ways ofbining resources to produce goods and services, not just at the levelof new machines or processes, but also by relatively adjustmentsat the level of the factory or the farm28 / 28Figure 1. Evolution of development thoughtGoals of development GDP ? GDP per capita ? HDI ? Mitigation of poverty ? Entitlements and capabilities ? Freedom ? Sustainable D Growth theoryHarrodDomar model ? Solow sources of growth ? New growth theoryCapital accumulationPhysical capital ? H. C. ? Knowledge C ? Social C.State and marketMarket failures ? Nonmarket failures ? New market failures ? Institutional failuresGovernment interventions Programming and planning ? minimalist government ? plementarity of government and marketPolicy reformPoor because poor ? poor because poor polices (get prices right) ? get policies right ? get institutions right2. 發展與增長理論 增長與發展的差異(1) “Development is taken to mean growth plus change.” “Improvement of the factors of production, improved technology of production。 the development of institutions and a change in attitudes and values”. (2) “ Upward movement of the entire social system”—Gunnar Myrdal. (3) “A rise in productivity, social and economic equalization, modern knowledge, improved institutions and attitudes and rationally coordinated system of policy measures.” C. E. Black.(4) Growth, equality and valuation of output. Differences in economic level and growth across countries Country’s GNP per capita in 2010表11：20002005年世界經濟和地區經濟年增長率及其與中國比較世界平均低收入國家中等收入國家其中：低中等收入國家高中等收入國家中、低收入國家高收入國家東亞與環太平洋國家其中：中國歐洲與中亞國家拉美和加勒比海國家中東與北非國家南亞國家非洲撒哈拉地區資料來源：World development report 2007 : development and the next generation. World Bank, 2007. 增長理論： （1） HarrodDomar model (11) basic formulas Y（t） = C(t) + S(t) 21Y（t） = C(t) + I(t) 22S（t） = I(t) 23K(t+1) = (1δ) K(t) + I(t) 24s (savings rate) = S(t)/Y(t)。 θ(capitaloutput ratio) =K(t)/Y(t)g ( growth rate ) = [Y(t+1) – Y(t) / Y(t)]s/θ = g +δ 25or g = s/θδ 25aIf there is population growth, the growth rate of GDP per capita is g* and (25) bees s/θ = (1+g*)(1+n) (1δ) 26s/θ ? g*+n +δ 27or g* ? s/θn δ 27a(12) Limitations of the modelThe endogeneity of savings: Ine level effect on savings。 ine distribution effect on savings. The endogeneity of population growth: Demographic transition。 relationship between population growth and economic growth (Figure ). （2） The Solow model (21) Basic ideas: one assumption: the law of diminishing returns to individual factors of production. θ(capitaloutput ratio) is endogenous. (22) The Solow equations K(t+1) = (1δ) K(t) + sY(t) 28 With population growth at a constant rate (n), (1+n) k(t+1) = (1δ) k(t) + sy(t) 29(23) The dynamics of the Solow model Production function。 To illustrate Figure in Ray (1998). (24) The steady stateTo illustrate Figure in Ray (1998). Steady state is level of per capita capital stock, to which per capita capital stock, starting from any initial level, must converge. (25) How the parameters affect the steady state k*/y* = s /(n+δ) 210 (26) Level effect and growth effect of population growth To illustrate Figure in Ray (1998) (27) Technical progress Two growth sources: technical progress and accumulation of capital inputs. The basic Solow model can be adapted easily to include technical progress. Suppose working population P(t), amount of labor in efficient units L(t), so L(t) = E (t) P(t) 211 E (t) is efficiency index. If efficiency grows at π, so E (t+1) = (1+π) E (t). 212 Even if there is technical progress, steady state is still existing as the outputcapital ratio tends to fall. The longrun increase in per capita ine takes place precisely at the rate of technical progress. （3） The convergence and divergence (31) What means convergence? (32) Unconditional convergence In the face of similar parameters governing evolution, the different initial conditions does not matter. To illustrate Figure in Ray (1998).Convergence is indicated by a strong negative relationship between growth rate of per capita ine and the initial value of per capita ine. log(yt+1) – log (yt) = a + b log(yt) +ε 213 Illustrate the figures below (next pages) Parente and Prescott (1993) studies 102 countries over the period of 196085 and finds standard deviation incr